Sat, Dec 14, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 19 | 116 | 11 | 431 |
| CBJ | 313 | 012 | 08 | 00 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:49CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 11:39CBJFedor TyutinUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 13:27CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.30 xG1–3
- P2 8:33STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 13:33STLChris StewartAssists: Brenden Morrow, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 0:22STLDavid BackesGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 12:00STLRoman Polak: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P1 13:20CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:20STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:20STLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:20STLIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:20CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:46CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:46STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:37STLDavid Backes: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:52CBJNikita Nikitin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:19CBJJack Johnson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:37STLRoman Polak: Charging2 min
- P2 12:27STLVladimir Tarasenko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:57CBJCorey Tropp: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:12STLBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:01STLDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Berglund – Tarasenko2:31
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie8:21
xG 0.29–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Roy – Tarasenko – Schwartz3:48
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Lapierre – Cracknell3:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:52
xG 0.82–0.20 (81%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Jackman – Polak3:10
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole5:45
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Comeau – Anisimov – Jenner6:26
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp5:01
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen11:23
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson8:44
xG 0.12–0.49 (20%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Prout10:04
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Johnson15:05
xG 0.33–0.65 (34%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Savard – Murray14:09
xG 0.42–0.79 (34%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).