Sat, Dec 14, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Phoenix Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 18 | 215 | 333 |
| PHX | 111 | 015 | 012 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14PHXPaul BissonnetteAssists: Connor Murphy, Jeff Halpern · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:50CARNathan GerbeAssists: Eric Staal, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 3:00CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 19:54CAREric StaalENAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrap-around, 0.57 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:53PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:23CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:39PHXRadim Vrbata: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:39CARRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:39PHXRadim Vrbata: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:14PHXJordan Szwarz: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:37PHXDavid Moss: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:54CAREric Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:54CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54PHXMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54PHXKeith Yandle: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:54CARJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Skinner11:09
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Semin – Gerbe – Staal11:25
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Nash2:08
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Bowman2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk17:52
xG 1.12–0.41 (73%)attempts 24–14goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Gleason14:28
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Harrison – Murphy12:35
xG 0.11–0.75 (13%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Klinkhammer – Boedker2:06
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Klinkhammer7:07
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Szwarz5:17
xG 0.31–0.16 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy10:39
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Stone10:45
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson12:37
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Yandle – Murphy17:01
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 14–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).