Sun, Dec 15, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Washington Capitals 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 19 | 28 | 03 | 1 | 428 |
| WSH | 17 | 07 | 316 | 03 | 2 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:17WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 19:06PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Michael Raffl, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:37PHIMark StreitAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 2:18PHISean CouturierAssists: Matt Read, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 3:32PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Michael Raffl, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 11:20WSHMike GreenAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 16:29WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Eric Fehr, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 19:12WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Joel Ward · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Eric Fehr scored
- 2. PHI Matt Read stopped
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 6. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:37PHIClaude Giroux: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 10:29PHIMichael Raffl: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:43WSHJason Chimera: Elbowing2 min
- P2 2:45WSHSteve Oleksy: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:21WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:21PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:48WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P2 19:15WSHJason Chimera: Interference2 min
- P2 19:41PHIScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:05WSHSteve Oleksy: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:05PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:42PHIMatt Read: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:42PHIMark Streit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl9:01
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 3–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier10:49
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Hall – VandeVelde – Rinaldo4:01
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Simmonds – Schenn6:44
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson11:36
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Streit – Grossmann11:21
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Coburn – Grossmann5:10
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Brouwer – Beagle8:12
xG 0.38–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson4:32
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:35
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Chimera – Erat – Ward10:58
xG 0.09–0.43 (18%)attempts 5–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov13:46
xG 0.57–0.05 (91%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Erskine – Oleksy7:53
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson13:31
xG 0.11–0.64 (14%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).