Sun, Dec 15, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 2, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 014 | 26 | 05 | 225 |
| MTL | 08 | 04 | 16 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:44FLAJesse WinchesterAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Marcel Goc · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:11FLANick BjugstadGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 2:28MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Brian Gionta, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:55MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P1 5:59FLATomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:12FLASean Bergenheim: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:59MTLRyan White: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:38FLAMike Weaver: Charging2 min
- P3 14:03FLAScottie Upshall: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Barkov11:24
xG 0.94–0.32 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Bjugstad12:25
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Barch – Matthias – Hayes7:16
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Winchester9:31
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert14:56
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson4:48
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Campbell – Olsen7:20
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Eller – Bournival5:32
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Moen – Prust – White4:27
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk12:39
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Brière – Desharnais – Pacioretty7:02
xG 0.04–0.19 (17%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Diaz2:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban18:24
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Gorges – Emelin15:27
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).