Mon, Dec 16, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 116 | 29 | 332 |
| CBJ | 05 | 011 | 28 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:59WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Evander Kane, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 2:28WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 8:48CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Matt Calvert, Ryan Johansen · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 10:35WPGEvander KaneGWGAssists: Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 11:39CBJFedor TyutinAssists: Mark Letestu, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:39WPGJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:39CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:40WPGAdam Pardy: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:40CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:32WPGChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:31WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:48CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:44WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:44CBJR.J. Umberger: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:53CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:39CBJCam Atkinson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Kane – Scheifele12:08
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:41
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi11:08
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Albert – Tangradi – Wright3:07
xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Pardy2:58
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba2:40
xG 0.11–0.05 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien2:06
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Anisimov – Jenner4:22
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp2:24
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner2:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson8:31
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Johnson5:59
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray4:14
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Savard6:04
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).