Mon, Dec 16, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 212 | 012 | 01 | 232 |
| OTT | 110 | 011 | 16 | 15 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 16:50STLChris StewartAssists: Derek Roy · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 19:47STLChris StewartAssists: Derek Roy, Brenden Morrow · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 5:44OTTBobby RyanAssists: Kyle Turris, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 3:59OTTCody CeciGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:24OTTZack Smith: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 4:31OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:55STLBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:06STLBarret Jackman: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:10OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:10STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:10OTTClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:10STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:11STLDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Steen – Oshie5:35
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Tarasenko11:06
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart6:04
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 5–13goals 2–1
- Roy – Porter – Stewart3:13
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk8:20
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:11
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Polak7:50
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Zibanejad12:46
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:28
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Condra – Conacher – Pageau4:12
xG 0.10–0.03 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – MacArthur8:12
xG 0.19–0.69 (22%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci13:53
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen22:03
xG 0.81–0.68 (54%)attempts 24–19goals 0–1
- Corvo – Wiercioch11:12
xG 0.11–0.44 (21%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).