Tue, Dec 17, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 0, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 04 | 08 | 021 |
| BOS | 010 | 115 | 16 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:38BOSZdeno CharaPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 3:19BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, David Krejci · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:59BOSJordan Caron: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:23CGYLance Bouma: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 15:28BOSBrad Marchand: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:25CGYLance Bouma: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:24BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jones – Byron – Backlund8:29
xG 0.22–0.22 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Byron – Backlund2:07
xG 0.01–0.04 (17%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hudler – Glencross – Monahan9:53
xG 0.02–0.15 (10%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Colborne – Bouma4:17
xG 0.44–0.81 (35%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Russell – Brodie15:38
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Butler11:40
xG 0.78–1.14 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Giordano – Smid17:26
xG 0.21–0.72 (23%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCampbell – Caron – Cunningham7:18
xG 0.86–0.09 (91%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic14:29
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith11:04
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Johnson – Spooner10:35
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk13:34
xG 0.86–0.15 (86%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Bartkowski – Miller12:48
xG 0.99–0.29 (77%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug12:01
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).