Tue, Dec 17, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 212 | 08 | 227 |
| BUF | 019 | 15 | 37 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:02WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:38WPGMark ScheifeleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 10:16BUFSteve OttAssists: Drew Stafford, Mike Weber · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 0:50BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Cody Hodgson, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 2:31BUFMatt MoulsonPPGWGAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 13:38BUFMatt EllisAssists: Kevin Porter, Brian Flynn · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:29WPGChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
- P1 11:00WPGToby Enstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:16BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:59WPGBryan Little: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:11WPGEric O'Dell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:02BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:02WPGGrant Clitsome: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:02WPGGrant Clitsome: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Albert – Tangradi – O'Dell4:26
xG 0.23–0.25 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:09
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Frolik – Kane – Scheifele13:16
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi10:03
xG 0.47–0.84 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Pardy11:57
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome15:13
xG 0.88–1.28 (41%)attempts 22–20goals 2–2
- Enstrom – Trouba15:40
xG 0.23–0.80 (22%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons12:57
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Hodgson – Foligno9:51
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Ott – Stafford – Leino11:23
xG 0.63–0.49 (56%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Ott – Leino – Foligno2:13
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – McBain12:39
xG 0.86–0.17 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer15:37
xG 0.71–0.74 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Myers16:00
xG 0.52–1.00 (34%)attempts 10–28goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).