Tue, Dec 17, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 115 | 07 | 05 | 127 |
| MTL | 03 | 011 | 314 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Connor Murphy · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 2:26MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 13:18MTLMax PaciorettyPPGWGAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:57MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:07MTLDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
- P1 7:16MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:56PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:51MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:51MTLBrandon Prust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:04PHXTim Kennedy: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:01PHXDavid Moss: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:43PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Bissonnette – Szwarz4:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Halpern – Klinkhammer – Szwarz2:25
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Chipchura – Boedker10:33
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy11:10
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy6:17
xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone6:01
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Murphy4:30
xG 0.01–0.09 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Prust – Bourque3:07
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:36
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk12:11
xG 0.88–0.69 (56%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
- Prust – Bourque – Eller2:25
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Diaz7:29
xG 0.66–0.08 (90%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban9:54
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Gorges – Emelin2:52
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).