Tue, Dec 17, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 412 | 110 | 08 | 530 |
| DET | 15 | 07 | 16 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15DETTomas JurcoAssists: Drew Miller, Kyle Quincey · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 3:40ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P1 5:29ANANick BoninoAssists: Daniel Winnik, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 18:17ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ben Lovejoy · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P1 19:59ANASami VatanenAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P2 12:26ANASaku KoivuAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Sami Vatanen · Backhand, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 18:02DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:20DETKyle Quincey: Boarding5 min
- P1 14:20DETKyle Quincey: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:25ANADustin Penner: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:42DETDaniel Cleary: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:59ANAKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:36DETDaniel Cleary: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Beleskey – Perreault7:43
xG 0.90–0.07 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:46
xG 0.69–0.12 (86%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Winnik – Bonino – Palmieri6:35
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner11:20
xG 0.10–0.24 (28%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Vatanen15:40
xG 0.89–0.13 (88%)attempts 21–3goals 2–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm14:27
xG 0.68–0.23 (74%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler14:12
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Datsyuk – Jurco9:56
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Tatar3:46
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Samuelsson – Sheahan2:54
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Andersson – Tatar5:35
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith6:13
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff8:57
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Smith6:02
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).