Tue, Dec 17, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 25 | 012 | 226 |
| PHI | 010 | 412 | 113 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:40WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 1:38PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Braydon Coburn, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 5:31WSHEric FehrAssists: Troy Brouwer, Martin Erat · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 11:54PHIMatt ReadAssists: Steve Downie, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 17:04PHIMark StreitPPGWGAssists: Matt Read, Chris VandeVelde · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 18:16PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 7:29PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Scott Hartnell, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 15:52WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:14PHIKimmo Timonen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:37PHIAdam Hall: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:37WSHAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:03WSHJohn Erskine: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:17WSHTom Wilson: Charging5 min · PPG
- P2 15:17WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:17WSHTom Wilson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 15:17WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:17PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:17PHINicklas Grossmann: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:34PHIChris VandeVelde: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:22PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:22WSHEric Fehr: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:23WSHJohn Erskine: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Fehr – Brouwer11:21
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Wellman – Volpatti – Wilson2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Wellman3:44
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle6:01
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson11:19
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–12goals 0–3
- Green – Orlov14:40
xG 0.82–1.10 (43%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Erskine – Oleksy12:37
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Simmonds – Schenn6:41
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hartnell – VandeVelde – Simmonds2:21
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Hall – VandeVelde – Rinaldo2:58
xG 0.02–0.03 (32%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier10:20
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann8:45
xG 0.69–0.09 (89%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Streit – Gustafsson2:18
xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Gustafsson2:42
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).