Tue, Dec 17, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 210 | 110 | 17 | 427 |
| STL | 04 | 210 | 08 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Martin Havlat, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:34SJSMatt IrwinAssists: Justin Braun, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 2:00SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 15:31STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Ian Cole · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 19:35STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 8:19SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Patrick Marleau, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:16STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:27SJSBrad Stuart: Holding2 min
- P1 6:26STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:24STLBarret Jackman: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:27STLDerek Roy: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:27SJSTommy Wingels: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:52SJSMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:59SJSLogan Couture: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Havlat – Couture5:00
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Sheppard – Wingels6:32
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Desjardins – McCarthy5:49
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels7:25
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun12:18
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Stuart – Demers12:05
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Boyle – Irwin9:39
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Porter – Stewart5:43
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Tarasenko6:27
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Porter – Berglund – Tarasenko2:48
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Oshie – Paajarvi2:27
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk6:56
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Polak – Cole9:19
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk3:03
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).