Tue, Dec 17, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 12 | 013 | 227 |
| DAL | 17 | 114 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 7:31DALRay WhitneyAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 10:20COLErik JohnsonAssists: Matt Duchene, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 17:19DALRay WhitneyPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 17:08DALColton SceviourGWGAssists: Rich Peverley, Dan Ellis · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:03DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 1:03DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:35COLMarc-Andre Cliche: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:35DALAlex Chiasson: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:35DALAlex Chiasson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:35COLMarc-Andre Cliche: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:28DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min
- P2 0:57COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:32DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:32DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:14COLTyson Barrie: Interference2 min
- P2 16:09COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:05COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:20COLAndre Benoit: Delaying game2 min
- P3 13:31DALShawn Horcoff: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Stastny – Landeskog11:53
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Duchene – MacKinnon10:34
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche3:17
xG 0.00–0.26 (2%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn8:57
xG 0.13–0.70 (15%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Benoit8:03
xG 0.81–0.54 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Johnson – Barrie2:22
xG 0.01–0.06 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Benoit – Hejda2:13
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Peverley – Sceviour7:03
xG 0.50–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Whitney – Horcoff – Chiasson4:19
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:25
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:35
xG 0.43–0.87 (33%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Benn11:05
xG 1.37–0.08 (94%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Dillon14:56
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Connauton2:35
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).