Wed, Dec 18, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 18 | 110 | 225 |
| NJD | 212 | 211 | 110 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02NJDStephen GiontaSHAssists: Adam Henrique, Anton Volchenkov · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 12:08NJDReid BoucherAssists: Eric Gelinas, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 2:08NJDJaromir JagrPPGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Andy Greene · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 5:30OTTColin GreeningPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 19:32NJDDamien BrunnerAssists: Patrik Elias · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 8:35OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 9:20NJDEric GelinasAssists: Damien Brunner, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:08NJDMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:19OTTBobby Ryan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53NJDTravis Zajac: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:56OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:56NJDSteve Bernier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:00OTTClarke MacArthur: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:00OTTClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:29NJDMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:55OTTJoe Corvo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:35OTTClarke MacArthur: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:35NJDCam Janssen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris5:02
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Zibanejad3:19
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith5:21
xG 0.14–0.11 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – MacArthur3:07
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Wiercioch8:50
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Phillips – Ceci11:48
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:33
xG 0.00–0.05 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Henrique – Brunner9:25
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac12:49
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ryder – Loktionov – Boucher9:39
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Bernier – Gionta2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fayne – Greene12:37
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Merrill2:06
xG 0.04–0.04 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Merrill13:15
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).