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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 18, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Rangers 3 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Rangers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

NYR winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT0911129031432
NYR0611129060332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 12:44PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.56 xG1–0
  2. P2 15:35NYRCarl HagelinAssists: John Moore, Brad Richards · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P3 5:25PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P3 6:26PITBrandon SutterAssists: Olli Maatta, Matt Niskanen · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
  5. P3 12:43NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: John Moore, Justin Falk · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–2
  6. P3 18:14NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
  2. 2. PIT Jussi Jokinen stopped
  3. 3. NYR Rick Nash stopped
  4. 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
  5. 5. NYR Dominic Moore stopped
  6. 6. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
  7. 7. NYR Brad Richards stopped
  8. 8. PIT Pascal Dupuis stopped
  9. 9. NYR Benoit Pouliot stopped
  10. 10. PIT Brandon Sutter scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P2 5:19NYRJustin Falk: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 8:57PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 11:21NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 13:50NYRMichael Del Zotto: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 13:50PITHarry Zolnierczyk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P3 5:44NYRDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 5:44PITHarry Zolnierczyk: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 8:09PITSimon Despres: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 17:17PITMatt Niskanen: High sticking2 min · PPG
  10. OT 0:14PITChris Kunitz: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
48% to win52% to win
← PIT attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITNYR
32Shots on goal32
4.1Expected goals4.2
53Shot attempts68
35Faceoffs won36
2Power plays4
12Penalty minutes8
25Hits30
20Blocked shots11
14Giveaways17
6Takeaways11

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby9:17

    xG 0.98–0.50 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0

  2. Kobasew – Kunitz – Crosby2:55

    xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  3. Adams – Kobasew – Sill6:37

    xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0

  4. Vitale – Conner – Sutter10:49

    xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBortuzzo – Dumoulin13:19

    xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0

  2. Despres – Samuelsson9:47

    xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0

  3. Bortuzzo – Samuelsson2:16

    xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. bestMoore – Pouliot – Dorsett6:32

    xG 0.45–0.22 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

  2. Richards – Brassard – Zuccarello12:29

    xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  3. Asham – Boyle – Hagelin3:44

    xG 0.01–0.08 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

  4. Nash – Stepan – Kreider11:51

    xG 0.87–1.07 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestStralman – Del Zotto10:53

    xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0

  2. Stralman – Moore4:02

    xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0

  3. Falk – Moore10:51

    xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 4.2 xGPIT 4.1 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #155 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.11 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

NYR winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).