Thu, Dec 19, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 214 | 015 | 236 |
| BUF | 16 | 112 | 25 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:27BUFBrian FlynnSHAssists: Alexander Sulzer, Christian Ehrhoff · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:50BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 3:04BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 17:11BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Jamie McBain, Matt D'Agostini · Backhand, 0.29 xG2–2
- P3 14:19BUFDrew StaffordGWGAssists: Ville Leino, Steve Ott · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 15:39BUFTyler MyersAssists: Brian Flynn, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:37BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:37BOSMatt Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:17BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P1 11:36BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:58BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:37BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:37BUFMike Weber: Holding2 min
- P1 15:37BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:50BOSMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:33BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic15:18
xG 0.92–0.13 (88%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Fraser – Spooner8:42
xG 0.76–0.07 (91%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Campbell – Johnson – Caron5:56
xG 0.11–0.37 (22%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith12:31
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Krug14:31
xG 0.94–0.07 (93%)attempts 28–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski14:27
xG 0.85–0.43 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Boychuk3:34
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestD'Agostini – Foligno – Flynn8:54
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Ellis – Porter – Flynn2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons7:30
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Ellis – Moulson – Porter3:45
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – McBain2:54
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Weber – McBain10:34
xG 0.04–0.32 (10%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer14:07
xG 0.48–0.83 (37%)attempts 8–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).