Thu, Dec 19, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 05 | 013 | 112 | 05 | 1 | 135 |
| TOR | 18 | 08 | 09 | 02 | 2 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:52TORTroy BodieAssists: Cody Franson, Peter Holland · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P3 15:08PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Rostislav Klesla, Radim Vrbata · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TOR James van Riemsdyk scored
- 2. PHX Mikkel Boedker scored
- 3. TOR Mason Raymond stopped
- 4. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 5. TOR Joffrey Lupul scored
- 6. PHX Antoine Vermette stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:05PHXRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:07PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:10TORCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:58PHXGilbert Brule: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:44TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy15:03
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Vermette – Chipchura – Brule2:12
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Brule – Klinkhammer5:41
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Boedker2:07
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy16:38
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle18:25
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Klesla – Stone11:38
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri14:02
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- McClement – Clarkson – Kulemin16:13
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Lupul – Raymond – Holland11:41
xG 0.08–0.51 (14%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:13
xG 0.04–0.02 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Rielly11:39
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner13:11
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).