Thu, Dec 19, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Minnesota Wild 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 17 | 110 | 226 |
| PIT | 113 | 316 | 17 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49PITChris KunitzAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P2 1:54PITBrandon SutterAssists: Olli Maatta, Joe Vitale · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:33PITMatt NiskanenPPGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, James Neal · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 10:43PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 11:20MINJason PominvilleAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 3:13MINDany HeatleyAssists: Zenon Konopka, Keith Ballard · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–4
- P3 7:54PITOlli MaattaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:19PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:19MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:19PITChuck Kobasew: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:19MINKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:14MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:27MINNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:55PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:36PITSidney Crosby: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:18MINKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:18PITJames Neal: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:18PITJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:18MINKeith Ballard: Clipping2 min
- P3 5:44PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:58PITCraig Adams: Interference2 min
- P3 7:54MINJonas Brodin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 13:12PITMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 14:41MINCharlie Coyle: Interference2 min
- P3 17:58MINBrett Bulmer: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Parise2:56
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Heatley – Konopka – Bulmer3:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter7:33
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Mitchell6:11
xG 0.01–0.10 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Stoner7:00
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Suter – Brodin11:53
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin4:29
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:49
xG 0.94–0.25 (79%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Neal – Zolnierczyk4:12
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Neal3:29
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Vitale – Conner – Sutter4:42
xG 0.04–0.15 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta15:51
xG 1.35–0.58 (70%)attempts 17–11goals 3–1
- Despres – Samuelsson13:33
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dumoulin12:21
xG 0.23–0.44 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).