Thu, Dec 19, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 19 | 07 | 00 | 222 |
| DET | 115 | 111 | 010 | 12 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26DETDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 5:11CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Michael Cammalleri, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 11:38DETJoakim AnderssonAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Pavel Datsyuk · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 15:53CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 1:03DETDaniel AlfredssonPPGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:41CGYJiri Hudler: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:46CGYLee Stempniak: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:19DETJoakim Andersson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:02CGYLadislav Smid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:28DETTomas Jurco: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:46DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:21DETJonathan Ericsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:10DETJoakim Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:18CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Jones – Backlund12:54
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Hudler – Byron – Colborne4:03
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Colborne – Bouma2:43
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross12:11
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Brodie16:14
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Butler10:38
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Smid15:46
xG 0.09–0.42 (18%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Tatar6:21
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Tatar5:18
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Miller – Andersson7:23
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Sheahan – Jurco4:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Lashoff12:35
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:48
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 18–6goals 2–1
- Ericsson – Quincey3:15
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).