Thu, Dec 19, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 16 | 012 | 126 |
| STL | 312 | 011 | 26 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20STLAlexander SteenSHAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:55STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 13:33STLChris StewartAssists: Brenden Morrow, Barret Jackman · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 12:51MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 12:21STLJaden SchwartzAssists: T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 17:33STLMaxim LapierreAssists: Adam Cracknell · Slap, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:38STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P1 5:40STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
- P1 10:02MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:55MTLBrandon Prust: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:55MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:23MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:41MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P3 0:28STLMagnus Paajarvi: Holding2 min
- P3 3:35MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P3 12:41STLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P3 19:10STLBrenden Morrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:10MTLP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:28
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Bourque – Eller – Bournival7:00
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Prust – Bourque – Eller2:17
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Gionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk7:35
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin11:06
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Emelin – Diaz2:33
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Gorges – Subban12:21
xG 0.35–0.30 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Oshie – Schwartz8:29
xG 0.34–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Cracknell5:46
xG 0.21–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart8:43
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Tarasenko8:48
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Cole10:24
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo12:14
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk2:27
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).