Thu, Dec 19, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 014 | 07 | 128 |
| DAL | 213 | 15 | 18 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:49DALColton SceviourGWGAssists: Rich Peverley, Erik Cole · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 7:38VANChris HigginsAssists: Mike Santorelli, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 16:56DALErik ColeAssists: Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 2:23DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Erik Cole, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:06VANRyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:08DALRyan Garbutt: Delaying game2 min
- P1 16:32VANDaniel Sedin: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:43DALShawn Horcoff: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:38DALRyan Garbutt: Interference2 min
- P3 4:51VANJannik Hansen: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:12VANJannik Hansen: Delaying game2 min
- P3 15:30VANTom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen9:52
xG 0.70–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Sestito – Dalpe – Weise5:52
xG 0.06–0.16 (27%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Higgins – Kesler – Santorelli9:57
xG 0.11–0.38 (22%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian10:38
xG 0.15–0.62 (20%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev11:19
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa3:34
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Alberts – Tanev2:59
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Peverley – Sceviour8:20
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 14–3goals 2–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt8:24
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Whitney – Horcoff – Chiasson6:40
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:44
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGaunce – Connauton10:32
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 3–1
- Goligoski – Dillon14:05
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Benn16:21
xG 0.37–0.63 (37%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).