Thu, Dec 19, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 010 | 112 | 132 |
| LAK | 013 | 210 | 29 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:26LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 11:15LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Slava Voynov, Martin Jones · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 0:36LAKJeff CarterAssists: Dwight King, Robyn Regehr · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 6:16LAKDwight KingAssists: Jeff Carter, Robyn Regehr · Snap, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 17:50SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:25LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P1 18:59LAKDustin Brown: Kneeing5 min
- P1 18:59SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P1 18:59LAKDustin Brown: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 9:03SJSJoe Thornton: Holding2 min
- P3 2:51LAKJake Muzzin: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:37LAKMike Richards: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Havlat – Couture10:50
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Pavelski – Kennedy – Wingels4:45
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Brown – Desjardins4:32
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Sheppard – Wingels5:09
xG 0.00–0.13 (1%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Boyle – Irwin5:45
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hannan – Stuart11:40
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
- Vlasic – Braun11:59
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Clifford – Nolan4:36
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Lewis – Toffoli7:58
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Kopitar – King11:53
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Williams – Stoll – Clifford4:07
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Voynov2:15
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Martinez11:40
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Doughty13:53
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).