Fri, Dec 20, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Anaheim Ducks 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 110 | 14 | 11 | 324 |
| NJD | 08 | 18 | 15 | 00 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:15NJDMichael RyderAssists: Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 14:06ANACam FowlerAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 10:47ANAMathieu PerreaultAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Teemu Selanne · Snap, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 14:58NJDAndy GreenePPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 2:37ANAKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Cam Fowler · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:04ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:27NJDCory Schneider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:50NJDStephen Gionta: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:47ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P2 16:06NJDAndrei Loktionov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:24NJDMark Fayne: Interference2 min
- P3 14:13ANAMark Fistric: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Perreault – Palmieri8:23
xG 0.43–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Silfverberg4:56
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner6:40
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano5:40
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Lindholm12:04
xG 0.57–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Allen – Beauchemin10:51
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler15:55
xG 0.04–0.51 (7%)attempts 3–12goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zubrus – Zajac12:58
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Bernier – Sestito – Gionta5:26
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Elias – Henrique – Brunner3:10
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bernier – Loktionov – Boucher2:20
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene15:11
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Merrill8:56
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Fayne – Merrill2:16
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).