Fri, Dec 20, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 39 | 110 | 429 |
| CAR | 113 | 115 | 013 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:12CARJordan StaalAssists: Alexander Semin, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:41WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 8:34WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 11:16CARRiley NashPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–2
- P2 15:29WSHTroy BrouwerPPGWGAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:35WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:54CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P1 11:12WSHKarl Alzner: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:40CAREric Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:17WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 8:19CARTuomo Ruutu: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:34WSHKarl Alzner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:11CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:28WSHTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:41CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:41WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:10WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Erat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Erat – Ovechkin – Backstrom3:40
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle3:21
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Erat – Ward6:54
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson4:12
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Carlson13:55
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Green – Orlov14:49
xG 0.17–0.61 (22%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
- Erskine – Oleksy12:13
xG 0.26–0.74 (26%)attempts 3–19goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Gerbe – Staal8:59
xG 0.77–0.06 (92%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner13:34
xG 0.72–0.19 (80%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Nash6:22
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman4:58
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk13:44
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 23–6goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore12:25
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Gleason – Harrison14:29
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).