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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 21, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Phoenix Coyotes 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Ottawa Senators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.

OTT winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PHX092911416438
OTT192180904340

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:14OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Marc Methot, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:10OTTZack SmithAssists: Eric Gryba · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:28PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Mikkel Boedker · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P2 8:47PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
  5. P2 14:51OTTMarc MethotAssists: Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:47PHXAntoine VermettePPAssists: David Moss, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
  7. OT 2:23PHXAntoine VermetteGWGAssists: Derek Morris · Backhand, 0.42 xG4–3
Penalties (21)
  1. P1 5:36PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 9:39PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 10:57OTTMilan Michalek: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 16:24PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P2 1:02OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 8:16OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P2 10:41OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 10:41PHXMike Smith: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 10:41OTTColin Greening: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 10:41PHXMichael Stone: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 10:41OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
  12. P2 13:32OTTClarke MacArthur: Boarding2 min
  13. P2 13:32PHXConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
  14. P2 13:46OTTColin Greening: Roughing2 min
  15. P2 13:46PHXDerek Morris: Roughing2 min
  16. P2 15:53PHXMike Ribeiro: Tripping2 min
  17. P2 18:37PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 0:42PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
  19. P3 7:05OTTEric Gryba: Interference2 min
  20. P3 12:22PHXMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min
  21. P3 16:35OTTErik Condra: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
48% to win52% to win
← PHX attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Turris
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXOTT
38Shots on goal40
2.7Expected goals3.2
63Shot attempts66
33Faceoffs won30
6Power plays7
22Penalty minutes20
39Hits37
13Blocked shots14
11Giveaways14
11Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Phoenix Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. Chipchura – Korpikoski – Szwarz2:02

    xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  2. Vermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker5:02

    xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

  3. Ribeiro – Moss – Brule4:51

    xG 0.01–0.21 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0

  4. Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy8:42

    xG 0.04–0.57 (7%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKlesla – Stone5:44

    xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0

  2. Ekman-Larsson – Murphy13:00

    xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0

  3. Morris – Yandle13:25

    xG 0.39–0.98 (28%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. bestNeil – Greening – Smith10:31

    xG 0.91–0.03 (97%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0

  2. Kassian – Condra – Pageau3:37

    xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

  3. Spezza – Michalek – Conacher6:30

    xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

  4. MacArthur – Ryan – Turris8:26

    xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMethot – Gryba11:46

    xG 1.09–0.41 (73%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1

  2. Phillips – Ceci8:19

    xG 0.53–0.43 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0

  3. Karlsson – Cowen11:28

    xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.2 xGPHX 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #91 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.28 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 10% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.

OTT winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).