Sat, Dec 21, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 111 | 16 | 01 | 0 | 225 |
| LAK | 110 | 116 | 012 | 01 | 1 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:28LAKJeff CarterAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 5:25LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Jarret Stoll, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P2 14:02COLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 10:27COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. LAK Jeff Carter stopped
- 2. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 3. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
- 4. COL PA Parenteau stopped
- 5. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
- 6. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:18LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P2 7:49COLJamie McGinn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:48LAKJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:20COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:41LAKAlec Martinez: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:52LAKMike Richards: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Parenteau – Stastny – Landeskog15:52
xG 0.94–0.98 (49%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche5:11
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn12:35
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Duchene – MacKinnon10:26
xG 0.27–1.12 (20%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Benoit15:08
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson17:31
xG 0.75–0.69 (52%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie11:12
xG 0.07–1.21 (6%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Brown13:24
xG 1.28–0.34 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Carter – Kopitar – King11:41
xG 1.10–0.66 (63%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan6:57
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Lewis – Toffoli9:49
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty14:15
xG 1.48–0.59 (71%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Greene – Martinez11:23
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Regehr – Voynov16:25
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).