Sat, Dec 21, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 013 | 014 | 135 |
| BOS | 114 | 114 | 211 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:39BOSReilly SmithPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 18:54BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Matt Moulson, Henrik Tallinder · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 1:47BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 5:18BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 19:38BOSReilly SmithENAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:07BUFLinus Omark: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:39BOSRyan Spooner: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:28BOSPatrice Bergeron: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:40BOSGregory Campbell: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:07BUFTyler Myers: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:07BOSPatrice Bergeron: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:01BUFMike Weber: Holding2 min
- P3 13:12BOSJordan Caron: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 13:59BOSJohnny Boychuk: Holding2 min
- P3 14:29BUFSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Flynn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons9:47
xG 1.27–0.38 (77%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Ellis – Porter – Omark5:45
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Foligno – Flynn9:47
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Ott – Stafford – Leino10:29
xG 0.19–0.59 (24%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Myers12:36
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Weber – McBain15:42
xG 0.61–0.53 (53%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer11:39
xG 0.73–0.74 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Fraser – Spooner8:46
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith9:25
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Johnson – Caron6:52
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic13:23
xG 0.67–1.15 (37%)attempts 14–18goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Krug14:50
xG 0.99–0.36 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk2:46
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Warsofsky10:55
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).