Sat, Dec 21, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 17 | 014 | 314 | 12 | 537 |
| WSH | 010 | 37 | 15 | 00 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:26NJDMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Andy Greene, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 10:07WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Martin Erat, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 14:38WSHMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Eric Fehr, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 19:14WSHJoel WardAssists: Mike Green, Martin Erat · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 5:28NJDJaromir JagrPPAssists: Andy Greene, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 8:07WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 9:21NJDMarek ZidlickyAssists: Travis Zajac, Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 11:47NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 0:43NJDAndy GreeneGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:24NJDTravis Zajac: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:52WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:44WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Erat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zubrus – Zajac18:33
xG 1.10–0.23 (83%)attempts 26–7goals 2–1
- Ryder – Henrique – Boucher10:56
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Janssen – Sestito – Gionta4:31
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Elias – Bernier – Tedenby10:36
xG 0.26–0.69 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Merrill16:40
xG 0.78–0.31 (71%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – Gelinas12:33
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Fayne – Greene18:11
xG 0.88–0.59 (60%)attempts 23–9goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Erat – Ward13:21
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 7–21goals 2–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:15
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Fehr – Grabovski – Brouwer11:00
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson8:50
xG 0.02–0.37 (6%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Erskine – Oleksy12:27
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Green – Orlov19:45
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 14–24goals 2–0
- Orlov – Oleksy2:12
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).