Sat, Dec 21, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 214 | 115 | 336 |
| CBJ | 111 | 17 | 411 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:43CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Nick Foligno, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 14:29CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Ryan Murray · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 17:40PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 18:00PHISean CouturierAssists: Matt Read, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 3:36CBJDavid SavardAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Corey Tropp · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 5:39CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Nikita Nikitin, David Savard · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 12:22CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Corey Tropp, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 18:19PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.32 xG3–5
- P3 18:43CBJR.J. UmbergerENAssists: Artem Anisimov, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.65 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:49CBJMark Letestu: Holding2 min
- P1 12:07PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:19PHILuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P1 19:17CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P2 5:32CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:34PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 10:34CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:34CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:21PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:33CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 7:14PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Read – Couturier8:00
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Simmonds – Schenn9:15
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Hall – VandeVelde – Rinaldo3:34
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl9:34
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson9:11
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Streit – Coburn5:01
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 2–1
- Gill – Streit8:49
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Letestu – Tropp5:24
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner5:05
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Umberger – Calvert – Johansen2:44
xG 0.05–0.08 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen3:08
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray13:20
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson12:28
xG 0.42–0.37 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Savard13:03
xG 0.07–0.38 (16%)attempts 6–8goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).