Sat, Dec 21, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 6, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 114 | 414 | 633 |
| EDM | 014 | 04 | 05 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57STLChris StewartGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:50STLBrenden MorrowAssists: Chris Stewart, Derek Roy · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 1:46STLChris StewartAssists: Patrik Berglund, Barret Jackman · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 2:38STLJaden SchwartzAssists: T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.03 xG4–0
- P3 7:27STLChris StewartPPAssists: Derek Roy, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–0
- P3 12:42STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Magnus Paajarvi · Slap, 0.02 xG6–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:02EDMAnton Belov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:47STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:34STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:11STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:00EDMJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:24EDMSam Gagner: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:50STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:50EDMLuke Gazdic: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:03EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:51EDMDavid Perron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:07STLDerek Roy: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:07STLDerek Roy: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:07EDMCorey Potter: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Schwartz3:38
xG 0.77–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Oshie – Berglund – Tarasenko2:09
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz3:36
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Schwartz2:55
xG 0.04–0.03 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Cole11:33
xG 1.25–0.42 (75%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:22
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:57
xG 0.70–0.63 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Joensuu – Lander7:34
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Smyth – Perron – Nugent-Hopkins3:51
xG 0.17–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gordon – Perron5:27
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins8:49
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Belov13:38
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Schultz – Potter10:55
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Ference – Schultz13:47
xG 0.52–0.76 (41%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).