Sun, Dec 22, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Minnesota Wild 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 05 | 09 | 125 |
| NYR | 112 | 217 | 17 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08MINJason PominvilleAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:08NYRBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 11:26NYRCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Derek Dorsett, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:35NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 12:46NYRChris KreiderAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:15MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:46MINKeith Ballard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:48NYRJohn Moore: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:48MINKyle Brodziak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:17NYRBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P3 7:32NYRDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Granlund – Niederreiter11:38
xG 0.77–0.47 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Haula6:26
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Heatley – Brodziak10:01
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle14:01
xG 0.36–0.89 (28%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon7:08
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Scandella2:23
xG 0.06–0.04 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon4:59
xG 0.37–0.39 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Hagelin – Miller10:47
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider8:45
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Richards – Brassard – Zuccarello10:18
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett10:01
xG 0.33–0.55 (38%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:56
xG 1.33–0.17 (89%)attempts 22–12goals 2–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto10:50
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Falk – Moore7:06
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).