Mon, Dec 23, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 112 | 28 | 425 |
| CAR | 112 | 15 | 116 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:45CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 18:49CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:39CBJCorey TroppAssists: Mark Letestu, Boone Jenner · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 16:25CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 9:06CARAlexander SeminAssists: Jordan Staal, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 15:58CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Nick Foligno, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 17:26CBJJack SkilleGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:25CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:14CBJJames Wisniewski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:20CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:04CARAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:08CARRadek Dvorak: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:07CARManny Malhotra: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:56CBJJack Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:22CBJJames Wisniewski: Delaying game2 min
- P3 5:09CARBrett Bellemore: Holding2 min
- P3 6:36CBJRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:23CBJJack Skille: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Tropp – Jenner9:39
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Anisimov – Atkinson7:59
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen8:14
xG 0.26–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Skille5:04
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson12:57
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Savard11:47
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Wisniewski – Murray14:29
xG 0.28–0.37 (44%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Skinner7:39
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Nash5:42
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Dwyer – Tlusty2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman6:14
xG 0.11–0.20 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore9:54
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Gleason2:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gleason – Murphy8:24
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).