Mon, Dec 23, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 012 | 09 | 027 |
| OTT | 110 | 14 | 315 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54OTTZack SmithGWGAssists: Cody Ceci, Colin Greening · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 5:46OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Chris Phillips, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 1:36OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 12:42OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Erik Karlsson, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 14:02OTTCory ConacherAssists: Jason Spezza, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:00PITJames Neal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:27OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:43OTTChris Neil: Holding2 min
- P2 4:55PITChris Kunitz: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:33OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:29OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:50OTTJared Cowen: Interference2 min
- P3 15:41OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:29OTTEric Gryba: Holding2 min
- P3 16:51PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:19PITRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:19OTTBobby Ryan: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Kunitz – Crosby – Neal8:25
xG 0.24–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Vitale2:28
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Sill – Zolnierczyk2:57
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Neal – Conner2:01
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Maatta11:26
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Despres – Samuelsson10:57
xG 0.08–1.09 (7%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Dumoulin10:46
xG 0.35–1.40 (20%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Condra – Pageau5:54
xG 0.83–0.08 (91%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Conacher9:39
xG 1.02–0.32 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:48
xG 0.57–0.25 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris10:21
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci8:40
xG 1.20–0.08 (94%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Gryba – Cowen2:02
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen14:44
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 20–7goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).