Mon, Dec 23, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 08 | 08 | 127 |
| PHI | 25 | 114 | 112 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52PHILuke SchennAssists: Scott Hartnell, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:51PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 16:43MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 7:46PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Braydon Coburn, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 19:03PHIWayne SimmondsENAssists: Brayden Schenn, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:41MINMarco Scandella: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:52PHIBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:12PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:45MINNate Prosser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:37MINDany Heatley: Holding2 min
- P2 19:32PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:50PHIAdam Hall: Interference2 min
- P3 5:32MINMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Koivu – Coyle7:51
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Konopka – Mitchell4:46
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter10:40
xG 0.33–0.29 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Fontaine9:22
xG 0.26–0.76 (26%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon11:13
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin15:27
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser2:41
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Simmonds – Schenn9:51
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl10:26
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Read – Couturier9:16
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hall – VandeVelde – Rinaldo2:39
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Schenn11:50
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Streit – Meszaros2:08
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:38
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).