Mon, Dec 23, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Boston Bruins 6, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 310 | 014 | 39 | 633 |
| NSH | 011 | 110 | 113 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 5:59BOSMatt FraserAssists: Carl Soderberg, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 10:47BOSReilly SmithPPGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 11:35NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Seth Jones, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–1
- P3 3:25NSHCraig SmithAssists: Nick Spaling, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 5:01BOSJarome IginlaPPAssists: David Krejci, Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.29 xG4–2
- P3 5:50BOSCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.35 xG5–2
- P3 15:54BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:40NSHEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:40BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:03NSHSeth Jones: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:29BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:43BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:21NSHGabriel Bourque: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 4:44NSHPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Fraser – Spooner9:11
xG 0.47–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith13:10
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Campbell – Johnson – Caron6:05
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic15:30
xG 0.36–0.87 (30%)attempts 10–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Warsofsky9:45
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – McQuaid11:05
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Warsofsky3:11
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Gaustad – Nystrom4:03
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Bourque5:13
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Hornqvist2:32
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith13:09
xG 0.37–0.38 (50%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Klein – Ekholm14:51
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi19:25
xG 0.64–0.82 (44%)attempts 22–18goals 1–1
- Ellis – Jones14:45
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).