Mon, Dec 23, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 3, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 211 | 010 | 03 | 0 | 335 |
| CGY | 08 | 15 | 212 | 04 | 1 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:23STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Brenden Morrow, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 12:06CGYJiri HudlerPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 13:49STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 14:33STLMagnus PaajarviAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Adam Cracknell · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 11:05CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Paul Byron, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:55CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Joe Colborne scored
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. CGY Jiri Hudler stopped
- 4. STL Derek Roy stopped
- 5. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 6. STL Magnus Paajarvi stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:50STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:15CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:11STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:46CGYPaul Byron: Interference2 min
- P2 9:50CGYMark Giordano: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:50STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:38CGYChris Butler: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:23STLPatrik Berglund: Roughing2 min · PPG
- OT 4:00STLDavid Backes: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Jaskin4:37
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Cracknell – Paajarvi3:07
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Tarasenko4:54
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart8:51
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Cole10:12
xG 0.57–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:28
xG 0.57–0.12 (82%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:31
xG 0.95–0.99 (49%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Hudler – Jones – Colborne11:33
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Bouma – Monahan3:32
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Galiardi – Monahan2:40
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Byron – Backlund10:41
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Butler3:11
xG 0.47–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Smid2:28
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Giordano2:44
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).