Mon, Dec 23, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 2, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 110 | 03 | 220 |
| EDM | 214 | 17 | 39 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Andrew Ference · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:20WPGMark StuartAssists: Olli Jokinen, Devin Setoguchi · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:07EDMSam GagnerAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 9:08WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 16:40EDMDavid PerronGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 4:28EDMJeff PetryAssists: Nail Yakupov, David Perron · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 8:34EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 16:16EDMNail YakupovAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (23)
- P1 4:45WPGEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:24WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:30WPGMark Scheifele: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:28EDMAles Hemsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:59EDMRyan Smyth: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 12:44WPGEric O'Dell: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:17EDMJesse Joensuu: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:36WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:56EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:56EDMLuke Gazdic: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:56WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:16WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:16WPGChris Thorburn: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:16EDMNail Yakupov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:16WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:16WPGAndrew Ladd: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:16WPGAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:16WPGZach Bogosian: Spearing5 min
- P3 16:16WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:16WPGBryan Little: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:16EDMNail Yakupov: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:16WPGZach Bogosian: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 18:43WPGMark Stuart: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi7:30
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Kane – Scheifele2:27
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:18
xG 0.17–0.42 (28%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Frolik – Kane – Scheifele10:11
xG 0.38–0.79 (33%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba10:47
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian11:57
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Pardy14:19
xG 0.59–1.02 (37%)attempts 17–15goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Hemsky – Gordon11:09
xG 0.60–0.13 (82%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:56
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Joensuu – Gagner – Eberle8:26
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Yakupov3:44
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz15:05
xG 0.84–0.40 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Schultz – Petry13:07
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Potter – Belov9:24
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).