Fri, Dec 27, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 118 | 18 | 240 |
| WSH | 17 | 113 | 114 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Martin Erat, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 1:37NYRBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Brad Richards, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 18:55WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Steve Oleksy · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 0:17NYRCarl HagelinSHAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 14:51WSHEric FehrGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:09NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:32WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P1 10:32WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:32NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:16WSHMartin Erat: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:58WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:42NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:12NYRDerick Brassard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:31NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:15NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:15WSHTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Erat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Brassard – Zuccarello9:25
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Hagelin – Miller7:12
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett7:59
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider10:36
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Moore9:34
xG 0.77–0.10 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Girardi – Falk3:20
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto3:10
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson10:02
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Fehr – Grabovski – Brouwer9:42
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Chimera – Erat – Ward9:55
xG 0.15–0.56 (22%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson7:11
xG 0.00–0.59 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson13:03
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Green – Orlov13:49
xG 0.17–0.46 (27%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Erskine – Oleksy10:24
xG 0.12–0.79 (13%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).