Sat, Dec 28, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 15 | 116 | 332 |
| OTT | 211 | 111 | 18 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04OTTPatrick WierciochAssists: Cody Ceci, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 12:06BOSDaniel PailleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 14:28OTTCory ConacherAssists: Kyle Turris, Cody Ceci · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 0:29OTTZack SmithSHAssists: Erik Condra · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 13:51BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 6:36BOSDavid WarsofskyAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 15:25OTTBobby RyanGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:11BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:54OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:54BOSJordan Caron: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:39OTTJoe Corvo: Holding2 min
- P2 0:15OTTJoe Corvo: Holding2 min
- P2 11:48OTTCraig Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:04BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:09OTTZack Smith: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Fraser – Spooner6:19
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Campbell – Paille – Caron8:30
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic12:42
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith13:46
xG 0.63–0.77 (45%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWarsofsky – Trotman10:17
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bartkowski – Trotman2:13
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Warsofsky2:38
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris13:23
xG 1.26–0.37 (78%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Michalek – Conacher – Zibanejad10:26
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Kassian – Condra – Pageau4:29
xG 0.08–0.20 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith12:04
xG 0.20–0.62 (24%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen15:51
xG 1.10–0.34 (76%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Wiercioch – Ceci12:24
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Corvo – Methot14:02
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).