Sat, Dec 28, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 18 | 06 | 00 | 1 | 221 |
| TBL | 03 | 16 | 014 | 01 | 0 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:15MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brian Gionta, Travis Moen · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 11:43TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 2. MTL Lars Eller scored
- 3. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 5. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:55TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:44TBLRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:53MTLRaphael Diaz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:25MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:34TBLJean-Philippe Cote: Interference2 min
- P3 6:00MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Eller – Galchenyuk7:45
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:46
xG 0.47–0.29 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:14
xG 0.27–0.15 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Gallagher – Galchenyuk3:06
xG 0.13–0.11 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin16:45
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban13:25
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Subban2:37
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Crombeen – Pyatt3:31
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat12:26
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown12:18
xG 0.34–0.54 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn11:56
xG 0.34–0.61 (36%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Cote – Gudas5:31
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Barberio – Hedman8:22
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hedman – Korobov2:11
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).