Sat, Dec 28, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 18 | 19 | 228 |
| NSH | 17 | 09 | 215 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:42NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Mike Fisher, Seth Jones · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:05LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Slava Voynov, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 16:42NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:23LAKJeff CarterAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dwight King · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 19:33NSHMike FisherGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:43LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:43NSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:43LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:45LAKJordan Nolan: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:17NSHPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:55LAKJake Muzzin: Elbowing2 min
- P2 9:08LAKMatt Greene: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:18NSHPaul Gaustad: Interference2 min
- P3 15:29LAKTyler Toffoli: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Kopitar – King11:17
xG 0.57–0.12 (82%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Clifford – Nolan2:24
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Lewis – Toffoli6:55
xG 0.17–0.32 (36%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Brown10:59
xG 0.17–0.57 (23%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez7:44
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Doughty9:18
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Doughty8:20
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Stalberg – Bourque8:47
xG 0.72–0.08 (90%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson12:41
xG 0.76–0.68 (53%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Nystrom4:19
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith9:23
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Jones14:59
xG 0.83–0.35 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Klein – Ellis9:57
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi20:01
xG 0.62–1.12 (35%)attempts 11–27goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).