Sat, Dec 28, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 214 | 111 | 02 | 2 | 438 |
| EDM | 28 | 03 | 14 | 01 | 1 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32EDMTaylor HallUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 4:02EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Taylor Hall, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 3:37PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 12:13PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Scott Hartnell · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 11:52EDMDavid PerronPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 14:28PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 2. PHI Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 3. EDM David Perron stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 5. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
- 6. PHI Michael Raffl scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:37PHINicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:37PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P1 18:53PHIMark Streit: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:21EDMAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:15EDMDavid Perron: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:05EDMJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P3 4:45PHIVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:59PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:42EDMAles Hemsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:16EDMJeff Petry: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl8:05
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Hall – Downie – Rinaldo4:09
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Simmonds – Schenn9:57
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Read – Couturier10:44
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann13:53
xG 0.93–0.22 (81%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Timonen – Coburn12:17
xG 0.87–0.28 (76%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Schenn12:43
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Joensuu – Gagner – Perron4:14
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins7:11
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Yakupov5:11
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Smyth – Hemsky – Gordon9:35
xG 0.05–0.38 (11%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ference – Schultz14:36
xG 0.58–0.82 (41%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
- Marincin – Belov10:57
xG 0.18–0.60 (23%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Schultz – Petry13:23
xG 0.06–0.81 (7%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).