Sun, Dec 29, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 1, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 15 | 010 | 122 |
| FLA | 18 | 210 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:56MTLBrandon PrustAssists: Raphael Diaz, Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:51FLABrian CampbellGWGAssists: Tom Gilbert, Brad Boyes · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 14:29FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Tom Gilbert, Brad Boyes · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 19:43FLASean BergenheimENAssists: Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.54 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:17FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:39MTLRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P2 17:28MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:04FLANick Bjugstad: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:50MTLTomas Plekanec: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:50FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:48FLAAlexander Petrovic: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:22MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Eller – Galchenyuk8:12
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:48
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Moen – Prust – White8:55
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:10
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bouillon – Subban2:00
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban13:24
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Diaz14:34
xG 0.35–0.36 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Barkov12:03
xG 0.59–0.02 (96%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Barch – Hayes – Shore8:37
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:04
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Matthias10:50
xG 0.19–0.48 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert15:56
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Olsen – Petrovic12:08
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Campbell – Olsen2:01
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).