Sun, Dec 29, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 16 | 110 | 04 | 12 | 322 |
| DAL | 08 | 213 | 08 | 01 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 5:12STLT.J. OshieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 8:13DALJamie BennPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 11:31DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Aaron Rome, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 4:49STLKevin ShattenkirkPPGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Sobotka · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:53DALRyan Garbutt: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 6:43STLDmitrij Jaskin: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:29STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference2 min
- P2 8:08STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:01STLVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:11STLT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:24DALKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Paajarvi – Tarasenko9:45
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Oshie – Sobotka – Schwartz14:22
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Roy – Stewart – Jaskin4:12
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Lapierre – Porter4:17
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk15:58
xG 0.58–0.41 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:20
xG 0.62–0.67 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Cole13:51
xG 0.12–0.67 (15%)attempts 4–22goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Peverley – Chiasson10:03
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:51
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Horcoff – Fiddler8:34
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin12:31
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dillon18:01
xG 0.73–0.16 (82%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Rome – Dillon2:13
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Rome – Benn14:14
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).