Sun, Dec 29, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 5, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 212 | 311 | 531 |
| MIN | 116 | 27 | 114 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22MINRyan SuterAssists: Mike Rupp, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 0:39MINJonas BrodinAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 2:59MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 8:45NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Thomas Vanek, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 18:58NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Thomas Hickey, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 6:30NYIThomas HickeyAssists: Colin McDonald, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 12:13NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Thomas Hickey, Andrew MacDonald · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 13:45MINJustin FontaineAssists: Matt Cooke, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 14:12NYIKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:35MINTorrey Mitchell: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:35NYIColin McDonald: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:10NYIAaron Ness: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:11MINKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:59NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:49MINMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
- P3 2:31NYICasey Cizikas: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:02NYICalvin de Haan: Holding2 min
- P3 17:29MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Nelson – Strome2:08
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Regin – Clutterbuck7:42
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares13:41
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 16–15goals 3–0
- McDonald – Nelson – Strome6:33
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan13:22
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Strait – Ness10:30
xG 0.35–0.37 (48%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hickey13:08
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 4–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Coyle – Niederreiter12:46
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 21–5goals 2–1
- Rupp – Veilleux – Mitchell3:48
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Mitchell2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Heatley – Pominville – Granlund10:26
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin19:15
xG 0.82–0.34 (70%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon12:24
xG 0.63–0.89 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Ballard – Prosser9:14
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).