Mon, Dec 30, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 014 | 011 | 135 |
| OTT | 111 | 114 | 113 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11WSHJoel WardAssists: Martin Erat, Jason Chimera · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 13:49OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Cory Conacher, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 3:14OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 19:25OTTClarke MacArthurENAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:38WSHAaron Volpatti: Interference2 min
- P1 15:16WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:00OTTCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:45WSHSteve Oleksy: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:39OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Holding2 min
- P3 10:58WSHKarl Alzner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Grabovski – Brouwer9:47
xG 0.86–0.21 (81%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson5:58
xG 0.23–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Erat – Ward10:24
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Grabovski – Johansson2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov18:33
xG 0.85–0.24 (78%)attempts 25–10goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson13:02
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:21
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGreening – Condra – Smith9:47
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith2:24
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Michalek – Conacher – Zibanejad10:36
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Kassian – Condra – Pageau3:49
xG 0.01–0.15 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Corvo – Wiercioch11:36
xG 0.13–0.22 (36%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Cowen17:28
xG 0.24–0.54 (30%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci13:15
xG 0.41–0.81 (33%)attempts 12–25goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).