Mon, Dec 30, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 4, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 15 | 011 | 39 | 425 |
| NSH | 29 | 111 | 39 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54NSHColin WilsonAssists: Seth Jones, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 3:00DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Drew Miller · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 9:50NSHCraig SmithAssists: Paul Gaustad · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 4:24NSHNick SpalingAssists: Craig Smith · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 0:35DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 5:50NSHMike FisherAssists: Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 11:30DETKyle QuinceyAssists: Darren Helm, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.55 xG3–4
- P3 12:07NSHColin WilsonGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 14:52DETPatrick EavesPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 19:41NSHRoman JosiENAssists: Matt Cullen · Snap, 0.55 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:20DETDrew Miller: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 4:52DETKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:48NSHMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:39DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:39NSHMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:29DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:25NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:54DETTodd Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Zetterberg7:01
xG 0.44–0.04 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Cleary – Miller – Andersson5:02
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Eaves – Abdelkader – Helm5:30
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Jurco3:09
xG 0.04–0.09 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser14:54
xG 1.33–0.20 (87%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Kindl – Lashoff12:41
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Smith15:38
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 18–13goals 1–3
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Wilson9:52
xG 0.73–0.07 (91%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Cullen – Stalberg – Bourque9:36
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith12:31
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Nystrom7:17
xG 0.07–0.41 (14%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Jones12:46
xG 0.80–0.26 (76%)attempts 16–6goals 3–0
- Klein – Ellis10:44
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi20:05
xG 0.37–0.72 (34%)attempts 13–23goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).