Tue, Dec 31, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 2, Florida Panthers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 013 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 231 |
| FLA | 06 | 19 | 07 | 00 | 0 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:18FLABrad BoyesAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 17:50NYRDan GirardiAssists: Derek Stepan, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 3. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 4. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 5. NYR Brad Richards scored
- 6. FLA Brad Boyes stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:06NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:36FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Interference2 min
- P2 3:41FLAKrys Barch: Holding2 min
- P2 5:46NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:19FLADylan Olsen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:47NYRBrad Richards: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Boyle – Dorsett6:58
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider10:46
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Richards – Brassard – Zuccarello11:01
xG 0.19–0.15 (57%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Hagelin – Miller6:48
xG 0.06–0.12 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Allen8:05
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Allen2:35
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Stralman – Moore7:12
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Barkov14:03
xG 0.92–0.50 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau9:36
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Matthias11:17
xG 0.04–0.13 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Barch – Hayes – Shore5:54
xG 0.00–0.13 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Gilbert16:29
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov15:20
xG 0.39–0.51 (44%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Olsen – Petrovic6:02
xG 0.05–0.20 (20%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).