Tue, Dec 31, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 211 | 15 | 17 | 02 | 425 |
| CAR | 010 | 015 | 415 | 12 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20MTLLars EllerAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:46MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: David Desharnais, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 14:24MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: P.K. Subban, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.22 xG3–0
- P3 1:38CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 2:15CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:07CAREric StaalAssists: Jeff Skinner, Brett Bellemore · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 8:16CARManny MalhotraAssists: Zach Boychuk, Tuomo Ruutu · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 10:16MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 3:27CARAlexander SeminGWGAssists: Ron Hainsey, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 3:00CAREric Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:22MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:02CARJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:34MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
- P1 13:58MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P1 15:35CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:35MTLJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P2 2:23MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:23MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:38MTLMichael Bournival: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:39MTLJosh Gorges: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:57CAREric Staal: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 0:11MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:38MTLBrendan Gallagher: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P3 9:24CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:31CAREric Staal: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:31CAREric Staal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher8:11
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk9:37
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Moen – White – Bournival5:50
xG 0.12–0.59 (16%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque8:31
xG 0.10–1.14 (8%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Subban3:16
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban10:00
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 4–17goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin9:33
xG 0.15–0.38 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Skinner6:28
xG 0.96–0.05 (95%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal5:55
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Ruutu – Boychuk3:08
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Gerbe2:27
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore12:31
xG 1.40–0.20 (88%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Komisarek – Murphy6:58
xG 0.20–0.08 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Sekera – Faulk11:57
xG 0.60–0.95 (39%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).