Tue, Dec 31, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 114 | 06 | 15 | 225 |
| DAL | 113 | 211 | 08 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:23LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Mike Richards, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 15:58DALErik ColePPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.54 xG1–1
- P2 12:13DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 15:16DALErik ColeGWGAssists: Rich Peverley, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 1:05LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Jeff Carter, Dwight King · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:04LAKMatt Greene: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:45DALRyan Garbutt: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 11:49LAKJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:07DALKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:23LAKJordan Nolan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:54DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:29LAKWillie Mitchell: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:34LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:34LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Williams – Brown – Richards12:01
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Stoll – Frattin – Nolan10:24
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Carter – Kopitar – King11:21
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Toffoli6:31
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Muzzin7:35
xG 0.59–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Regehr – Greene3:40
xG 0.01–0.04 (15%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Voynov17:08
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Peverley – Nichushkin5:51
xG 0.58–0.09 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:12
xG 0.62–0.28 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Chiasson – Seguin6:46
xG 0.19–0.10 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin3:59
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Benn12:47
xG 0.93–0.33 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Gaunce – Connauton12:19
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Dillon16:44
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).